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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MICHIGAN AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon and evening
across parts of Michigan, and perhaps extending into portions of the
Midwest Friday night. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible
across parts of the southern Plains during the afternoon and
evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary
threats, but a couple of tornadoes also appear possible in Lower
Michigan.

...Great Lakes into the Midwest...
A positively tilted upper trough will progress very slowly eastward
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Friday. A
surface low is forecast to deepen as it develops northeastward
across Ontario through the day, with a trailing cold front extending
across the Midwest, mid MS Valley, and into the central/southern
Plains. It appears likely that a substantial cap will inhibit
surface-based thunderstorms along most of the front through the day.
Still, slightly better forcing aloft associated with the approaching
upper trough may allow for isolated convective development across
parts of MI by Friday afternoon. If thunderstorms can form, they
would pose a threat for all severe hazards across this region, as
both instability and deep-layer shear appear favorable for
supercells. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms may eventually
develop along the length of the cold front from MO to the Midwest
Friday evening/night. This activity would pose a threat for mainly
isolated hail, although occasional strong/gusty winds may also
occur. Based on consensus of 12Z guidance, have confined the Slight
Risk to parts of MI where the chances for surface-based convection
during the day appear highest.

...Southern Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may form Friday afternoon and early evening
along/east of a dryline as a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough
moves over the region. Although mid-level flow will remain fairly
modest, there should be enough effective bulk shear to support some
updraft organization with any convection that can form. Isolated
large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, as strong
instability will be present owing to a moist low-level airmass and
steep mid-level lapse rates. The primary uncertainty remains overall
coverage of convection, as large-scale ascent will remain rather
weak along the length of the dryline.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A remnant MCV from earlier convection should be present over PA at
the start of the period Friday morning. Some strong to perhaps
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of this circulation
across parts of southern PA/northern MD into DE and southern NJ
Friday afternoon. If convection can form, it would pose a threat for
all severe hazards given gradually increasing instability and a
favorable kinematic parameter space related to the MCV. Confidence
in thunderstorms redeveloping is not particularly high, but there is
enough of a signal in guidance to include a small Marginal Risk.

..Gleason.. 05/19/2022