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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible later this afternoon into early tonight across
northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. 
Occasional large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may
also occur this afternoon from southern Missouri into parts of
Indiana/Kentucky.

...Upper MS Valley...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm
front extending eastward along the IA/MN border.  This boundary will
lift slightly northward today, with a warm and moderately moist
airmass along and south of the front.  A southerly low-level jet
will strengthen by mid-afternoon, enhancing convergence/lift along
the boundary and result in the development of intense thunderstorms.
Supercells map develop across the ENH risk area, capable of very
large hail and a tornado or two.  During the evening, storms will
likely develop southwestward across western IA into eastern NE, with
a more localized risk of large hail and damaging winds.

...Lower OH Valley...
Satellite imagery shows a pronounced MCV over southwest MO.  A
cluster of lead thunderstorms over eastern MO will limit northward
destabilization this afternoon, but a corridor of moderate/strong
instability will likely form ahead of the MCV from southern MO into
southern IL/IN and western KY.  Thunderstorms are expected to form
in this area, posing an initial risk of large hail and a tornado or
two.  12z CAM solutions suggest the activity will grow upscale
during the evening with an increasing risk of damaging winds as the
storms move into IN/KY.  Activity may remain locally severe as far
east as OH/WV later tonight before weakening as they track into the
mountains.

...Carolinas...
The environment from the western Carolinas to the coast will be
moderately unstable this afternoon, with a conditional risk of
damaging winds and hail in persistent/robust thunderstorm clusters. 
However, 12z model guidance suggests very few storms will develop
due to weak forcing aloft.  Therefore will maintain only MRGL risk
for today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2022