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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR KY...NORTHEAST MN/NORTHWEST WI...AND SOUTHEAST
CO INTO THE OK PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are
expected this afternoon/evening across Kentucky, northeast
Minnesota, and from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle.

...KY to southern MO this afternoon/evening...
An MCV from overnight convection will move eastward from MO to the
OH Valley through this evening.  The ongoing convection with the MCV
is elevated, and the MCV should slightly outpace surface-based
destabilization through early afternoon.  By mid afternoon,
low-level warming/moistening along the southwest flank of the MCV
should support severe storm development across KY.  Here,
boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s and afternoon temperatures
in the low-mid 80s (south of any linger cold pool/outflow) will
support MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, in a zone of low-level warm advection
beneath 50 kt midlevel westerly flow.  Resultant hodograph
structures will favor a broken west-east band of storms, some of
which could be supercells across western/central KY.  Damaging
winds, large hail to golf ball size, and a tornado or two will all
be possible.  The spatial and temporal window of opportunity for
severe storms is somewhat limited, and any delays in low-level
destabilization would reduce the severe threat. 

Father west, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this
evening along the effective baroclinic zone across far southern MO. 
Forcing for ascent will be weak/shallow and confined to the front,
so storm development/coverage is uncertain.  However, midlevel lapse
rates of 8-9 C/km, MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg, and midlevel flow
near 40 kt will support a conditional threat for large hail and
damaging winds. 

...Southeast CO to the OK Panhandle late this afternoon/evening...
A cluster of high-based storms appears probable across southeast CO
by mid-late afternoon, immediately east of the mountains in a zone
of weak upslope flow and strong surface heating/deep mixing.  Some
modest enhancement to midlevel flow with a subtle shortwave trough
moving across CO, and inverted-V profiles with DCAPE greater than
1200 J/kg, will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for a
storm cluster with occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph from
southeast CO into the OK Panhandle through late evening.

...Northeast MN/northwest WI this afternoon/evening...
An embedded speed max over ND this morning will progress
east-southeastward to MN by this evening, as an acco*panying/weak
surface cyclone likewise develops east-southeastward from southern
MB across northern MN.  Despite limited low-level moisture on the
larger scale, a corridor of low 50s dewpoints co*bined with surface
heating beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and cool midlevel
temperatures (colder than -20 C at 500 mb) will support MLCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition.  Effective
bulk shear of 30-40 kt with mainly straight hodographs and the
moderate buoyancy appear sufficient for a few storms (a couple of
which could be low-end supercells) to produce hail near 1 inch
diameter and wind damage with outflow gusts up to 60 mph for a few
hours this afternoon/evening.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 05/18/2022