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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS KY
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST CO TO NORTHERN OK...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHWEST WI...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and severe
hail are possible across Kentucky and vicinity during the late
afternoon to early evening. Scattered severe wind gusts, a couple of
which may be significant, are possible from southeast Colorado to
the Kansas-Oklahoma border area from late afternoon into tonight.
Isolated to scattered large hail and damaging winds are also
possible across northeast and east-central Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin during the late afternoon to early evening.

...KY vicinity to the MO/AR border...
A pronounced MCV over southern IL will track east across the OH
Valley towards the central Appalachians through this evening.
Primary severe potential should eventually emanate out of the
south-southwest flank of the MCV where some cloud breaks should
support surface-based destabilization in tandem with a plume of low
to mid 60s boundary-layer dew points spreading east. A fairly tight
gradient in MLCAPE is anticipated from west to east by late
afternoon. A couple supercells should develop in this time frame
amid enhanced low to mid-level flow attendant to the MCV. A threat
for all severe hazards is possible, although the overall spatial
distribution will likely remain isolated and temporally confined, in
addition to delays in low-level destabilization which could limit
intensity. Some west/east-oriented clustering may linger during the
evening, but the severe threat should wane after the MCV outpaces
the plume of diurnal destabilization. 

Farther west, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible
this evening along the effective baroclinic zone near the MO/AR
border. Forcing for ascent will be weak/shallow and confined to the
front, so storm development/coverage is uncertain. However,
mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg,
and mid-level flow near 40 kt will support a conditional threat for
large hail and damaging winds. 

...Southeast CO to northern OK...
A cluster of high-based storms appears probable across southeast CO
by mid to late afternoon, immediately east of the mountains in a
zone of weak upslope flow and strong surface heating/deep mixing.
Rather deeply mixed, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles with DCAPE
greater than 1200 J/kg, will favor strong downdrafts and the
potential for a storm cluster with occasional severe outflow gusts
of 60-75 mph from southeast CO into the OK Panhandle this evening.
Guidance is fairly consistent that the MCS will impinge on a plume
of richer low-level moisture arcing westward across northern OK.
This should help sustain a convectively generated MCV and maintain
the surface cold pool eastward along the southern KS/northern OK
border area. At least an isolated severe wind and some hail risk
should linger overnight in northern OK.

...Northeast/east-central MN and northwest WI...
A shortwave trough near the ND/Manitoba border will progress towards
the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. Attendant surface cyclone
should largely track along the MN/Ontario border with a reinforcing
cold front to its south-southwest sweeping east. Despite limited
low-level moisture on the larger scale, a corridor of low to mid 50s
surface dew points co*bined with abundant boundary-layer heating
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates and cooling mid-level
temperatures (colder than -20 C at 500 mb) will support MLCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Effective
bulk shear of 40-50 kts with mainly straight hodographs and the
modest buoyancy will be sufficient for at least a few supercells
capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. This threat will
diminish rapidly after dusk.

...Central NE and far south-central SD...
Convergence along the trailing portion of the aforementioned
reinforcing cold front may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms
during the late afternoon to early evening. While buoyancy will be
weak, adequate deep-layer shear and a steep low to mid-level lapse
rate environment will support potential for isolated, marginally
severe hail and wind.

..Grams/Wendt.. 05/18/2022