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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across a portion of the
central states through tonight. The area to be most likely impacted,
with potentially multiple rounds of severe weather, is focused on
parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri. A few
tornadoes, significant damaging winds, and very large hail remain
possible.

...01z Update...

Several weak mid-level disturbances are migrating east-southeast
atop central US ridge. One such feature is associated with a
long-lived cluster of convection that has propagated into southeast
IA/northeast MO. An MCV has evolved along the IA/MO border north of
IRK and this organized convection should spread along the warm front
into west-central IL with an attendant threat for wind/hail.

Upstream across the Plains, a squall line is evolving across
northwestern KS and this line of convection should slowly mature
over the next few hours as it advances southeast into a reservoir of
favorable moisture/buoyancy. 00z sounding from TOP was conditionally
unstable with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg. Current trends
suggest convection across the western part of ww236 should increase
in coverage/intensity as it spreads into this environment,
especially given the expected increase in LLJ into this portion of
the Plains after sunset. Significant wind damage and very large hail
may acco*pany this convection.

High-based convection along the TX Panhandle/OK border should
propagate slowly east over the next few hours and gradually weaken.
Little large-scale support exists at this latitude and this
diurnally-driven activity will likely weaken by 03-04z.

..Darrow.. 05/18/2022