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Mesoscale Discussion 0799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NE...Far West-Central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171356Z - 171600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail possible across central and eastern NE this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A robust elevated thunderstorm continues over northeast
NE, although some modest updraft weakening has been noted recently.
This thunderstorm developed on the far eastern edge of the steep
lapse rate plume and at the nose of the modest low-level jet. Some
limited ascent may have also been provided by a weak shortwave
trough moving into the central Plains. Some additional thunderstorms
have initiated farther west across central NE, although these
updrafts are not as intense as the northeast NE storms yet. Deep
cumulus exists all the way into far southwest NE.

Low-level stability remains in place within the downstream air mass,
although diurnal heating will weaken convective inhibition with
time. Even so, current observational trends and mid-level moistening
noted within forecast soundings suggest these area of storms could
persist. Severe coverage is currently expected to remain isolated,
limiting the need for a watch in short-term, but observational
trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41870071 42379796 42519691 42469613 42169554 41879538
            41439544 41189590 40719660 40379728 40159836 40350003
            41870071