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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NE TO NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST IA...AND
NORTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter,
damaging thunderstorm winds to 70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible this evening into tonight from eastern Nebraska
into northeast Kansas, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri.

...NE/KS/MO late this afternoon into tonight...
A co*plex, largely zonal flow regime with subtle embedded speed
maxima will affect the central CONUS through tonight.  A weak
southern stream trough will drift eastward over NM/southern CO,
while a downstream MCVs from overnight convection move eastward from
OK/KS to MO/AR today.  The primary feature of interest this period
is a subtle trough over WY/MT early this morning that will crest the
flat ridge over the High Plains and progress east-southeastward to
the middle MO Valley this evening into tonight.  Associated lee
cyclogenesis is expected today near the CO/KS border, and the
remnant lee cyclone will develop south-southeastward toward the TX
Panhandle tonight as a cold front moves southeastward across
CO/NE/KS.

Some temporary disruptions to the low-level moisture field have
occurred overnight across OK in the wake of weakening convection and
the MCVs with heat bursts, but this drying should wane as storms
dissipate.  Thereafter, a corridor of mid 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints will establish across eastern KS into southeast NE by this
evening.  When the cold front intercepts the richer moisture and
larger buoyancy by late evening from northeastern NE into northern
KS, thunderstorm development is expected.  Storms will subsequently
spread southeastward overnight into the corridor of richer moisture
and MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, aided by warm advection on the nose of
a 30-40 kt low-level jet.  The large buoyancy and steep midlevel
lapse rates/large DCAPE will favor precipitation-loaded downdrafts
capable of producing wind damage.  Profiles will also potentially
favor very large hail, though this threat depends largely on
maintaining supercell structures within the larger area of
convection.  Any tornado threat will likely depend on at least mid
60s dewpoints making it into NE, and on maintaining semi-discrete
supercells into late evening, or with line-embedded mesovortices.  

...Southeast WY to the southeast TX Panhandle this evening...
A few high-based thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon/evening in association with surface heating/deep mixing
and the influences of a shortwave trough crossing WY, and a southern
stream trough moving eastward from NM/CO.  Any storms/clusters that
form in this corridor will be capable of producing isolated severe
outflow gusts for a few hours late this afternoon/evening, given
inverted-V profiles.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 05/17/2022