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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/SD
INTO IA...SOUTHERN MN...AND MUCH OF WI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night over portions of the central Great Plains and upper
Midwest. At this time, large hail and damaging wind gusts are
expected to be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move
across the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains on Thursday,
in conjunction with a strong upper-level jet and
southeastward-moving cold front. A surface low initially over
southern AB/SK will move slowly southeastward during the day, while
another low is forecast to rapidly deepen along the front and move
from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. 

...Central Plains into the upper Midwest...
Richer low-level moisture is expected to spread rapidly toward the
central Plains/upper Midwest during the day on Thursday, in
conjunction with a northward-moving warm front. Thunderstorm
development is possible by late afternoon along the cold front, with
storm coverage likely to increase into the evening as moisture
return continues along/ahead of the front and a low-level jet
strengthens across the region. 

Strengthening deep-layer shear will support organized clusters and
perhaps a few supercells as storms mature, resulting in a threat of
large hail and damaging wind gusts into Thursday evening. Any
tornado threat will be dependent on the timing and magnitude of
low-level moisture return, which remain somewhat uncertain at this
time.

...OH Valley into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
The warm front is expected to move slowly northward during the day
from portions of the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic, in the wake of
potential early-day convection. While large-scale ascent is
currently expected to remain rather weak during the
afternoon/evening, isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible in the vicinity of the front. Should robust development
occur, moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will
support some threat of hail and damaging wind gusts with the
strongest storms, though uncertainty remains too great at this time
for the introduction of severe probabilities.

..Dean.. 05/17/2022