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Mesoscale Discussion 0789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Central/eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 162035Z - 162230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Deepening cumulus and a couple thunderstorms have
developed along the higher terrain in central New Mexico. Initially
discrete storms may produce large hail. With time, upscale growth is
expected into one or more clusters. A watch will probably be needed
as confidence in where storms will organize increases.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough apparent in water vapor imagery is
now moving northeast into the Four Corners. Surface low pressure
west of the north of the Mogollon Rim is helping to drive moist
upslope flow into the higher terrain from the Sacramento to Sangre
de Cristo Mountains. A supercell is evident on KFDX radar imagery
within the Sacramento Mountains. This storm has moved very slowly
east due to the MLCIN still within the eastern plains. With
continued heating and subtle influence from the shortwave trough,
additional storm development is likely later this afternoon. Initial
development will likely be supercellular with around 45 kts of
effective shear across the terrain. Large hail is possible with
initially discrete storms. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads will
mean rapid cold pool production and interaction between storms.
Guidance continues to show upscale growth of a cluster or two that
will move east into greater low-level moisture. The primary hazards
will then beco*e damaging winds as this occurs. Cold pool
organization may be sufficient to allow eastward propagation through
at least weak MLCIN. A watch will probably be needed later this
afternoon as confidence increases with regard to where cold pool
organization will occur.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34430611 35410643 36600564 36920459 36060377 33730370
            33060438 32850512 32930552 34430611