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Mesoscale Discussion 0786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Northeast VA...Much of MD...Delmarva Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 161823Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
anticipated this afternoon. The strongest of these storms will be
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail, and a watch will likely be
needed to cover these hazards.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown decreasing cloud
cover over the past hour or so, as the preceding area of showers and
thunderstorms moves quickly northeastward. Temperatures are warming
quickly as skies clear, with recent observations showing upper
70s/low 80s in northern VA. This warming trend is expected to
continue, with the air mass further destabilizing as it does. Ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave coupled with broad low-level
confluence along and ahead of the cold front should result in
thunderstorm development as convective inhibition decreases this
afternoon. 

co*bination of moderate buoyancy and shear across the region will
support robust updrafts and likely a few supercells if the mode can
remain discrete. Steep low-level lapse rates favor strong outflow
with any robust storms. Hail also appears likely given the amount of
buoyancy expected in place. Observational trends will be monitored
closely and a watch will likely be needed across portions of the
region this afternoon.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38987823 39307787 39557723 39537614 39197547 38777542
            38287582 37937679 37827754 37807821 38147881 38987823