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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WEST INTO NORTHWEST TX...

The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor
adjustments were made with this update.

..Weinman.. 05/16/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022/

...Synopsis...
A weak upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the
western CONUS on Tuesday, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs
move from the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. A
surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast CO, with a
dryline expected to extend southward across portions of west TX. 

...Parts of NM/west TX into the southern High Plains...
While the primary Pacific cold front/dryline may remain over west TX
during the afternoon, strong heating/mixing ahead of this feature
will result in the development of a secondary dryline further east
from southwest OK into central TX. The strongest low-level flow is
expected immediately to the west of this secondary dryline,
associated with a rather strong low-level jet. Areas from the TX
South Plains into the Big Country and Permian Basin may see
sustained winds of 20-25 mph as RH drops below 15%, resulting in
critical fire-weather conditions. Near-critical conditions may
extend into portions of southeast NM, though low-level flow is
currently expected to be somewhat weaker in this area.

In addition to the critical wind/RH threat, isolated high-based
thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern High
Plains during the late afternoon/evening, with very limited rainfall
potential, so an isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been included
for parts of this region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...