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Mesoscale Discussion 0781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Central NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...226...

Valid 161522Z - 161645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225, 226
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across central
PA. Isolated hail is also possible across south-central NY before
the threat trends more towards damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Updrafts embedded within the line of showers and
thunderstorms moving across central PA has shown sporadic
intensification over the past hour or so, with only limited updraft
maintenance/duration thus far. Heating downstream will help boost
instability, with strong updrafts beco*ing more prevalent. Threat
for damaging wind gusts across this region continues.

A few stronger updrafts have also developed within a warm-air
advection wing over north-central PA into south-central NY, to the
north and east of the deeper cores over central PA. The environment
supports a marginal hail risk with this initial development, with
wind damage beco*ing the primary risk as storms beco*e more
surface-based with time.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   40937765 42007772 42467739 43187672 43127591 42687533
            42187506 41657506 41317558 40917605 40007719 40937765