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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the
central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

...Synopsis...
A progressive/largely zonal upper-level pattern will prevail over
the CONUS on Tuesday, with the strongest westerlies over the
northern half of the CONUS.

...Central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley...
Potentially multiple low-amplitude disturbances, some of which may
be convectively augmented, will overspread the central
Rockies/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday amidst of
ribbon of moderately strong west-northwesterly flow aloft. A strong
elevated mixed layer will advect eastward over the region and tend
to limit the likelihood/confidence in deep convective development
with southward extent across the region.

At least widely scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across the
region early Tuesday, some of which could produce isolated severe
hail coincident with ample elevated instability on the edge of the
elevated mixed layer.

With afternoon heating/mixing, the boundary layer will otherwise
beco*e moderately to strongly unstable by late Tuesday afternoon. At
least isolated/widely scattered deep convective development appears
probable especially near the boundary across Nebraska/southeast
South Dakota into northern Kansas. Other potentially strong/severe
thunderstorms, albeit driven by lesser buoyancy, may develop across
eastern Wyoming/northeast Colorado within an evolving low-level
upslope flow regime. 

With moderate-strength westerly flow aloft, some initial supercells
can be expected along with multicells and the potential evolution of
multiple clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to the
primary hazards. Storms should increase in coverage toward/after
sunset as the low-level jet re-intensifies and contributes to the
east-southeastward persistence of storms Tuesday night, some of
which may remain severe into the overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Very isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of
the dryline/surface trough Tuesday late afternoon. Most global
models are relatively sparse in terms of convective development, but
multiple convection-allowing models lend some support to this
possibility across west/northwest Texas and far western Oklahoma.
Accordingly, a low probability of thunderstorms (near 10 percent)
appears warranted, and strong convectively enhanced wind gusts could
occur Tuesday late afternoon and early evening if/where storms
develop.

..Guyer.. 05/16/2022