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Mesoscale Discussion 0779
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...Parts of north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...

Valid 160250Z - 160415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail and one or more swaths of severe wind gusts may
acco*pany an intense thunderstorm cluster as it moves southward
across north Texas. Southward expansion of WW 224 may be needed.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster is moving into north TX at
0245Z. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) and sufficient effective
shear (30-40 kt) (noted on the 00Z FWD sounding and recent objective
mesoanalyses), co*bined with an increasing southerly low-level jet
noted on the KFWS VWP, will continue to support this cluster as it
moves southward, though increasing MLCINH should eventually lead to
a weakening trend later tonight. 

Large hail remains possible with the stronger embedded cells.
However, some southward acceleration of the cluster has been noted
in the last hour, potentially indicative of a strengthening cold
pool, and wind gusts to 70 mph were noted across southern OK with
the passage of this cluster. One or more swaths of severe wind gusts
will be possible as this cluster spreads southward, potentially
reaching the Metroplex by 0330-0400Z. Southward expansion of the
watch may be required within the next hour.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33869758 33879585 32579589 32129625 32269767 32959782
            33719770 33869758