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Mesoscale Discussion 0774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...Northeastern Oregon...southeastern
Washington...central Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 152049Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to initiate in the next few hours.
Some supercell structures are possible with a threat for damaging
winds and large hail. A low-end tornado threat is also apparent.
Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent continues to increase within the
Northwest as an upper-level trough pivots into British Columbia.
Visible satellite shows cumulus developing and deepening along and
east of the Oregon Cascades. Moisture remains limited across the
region with low 40s F in southern Oregon and 50s F into Washington
where cloud cover has been more prevalent. As such, buoyancy is also
limited. Continued heating this afternoon, however, is expected to
increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. Given the forcing, several
storms are anticipated to form in the next 2-4 hours. Effective
shear of 40-50 kts should favor some supercell structures.
Boundary-layer lapse rates and dewpoint spreads will promote a risk
for damaging winds. Cold temperatures aloft and sufficient storm
organization will mean large hail may occur as well. The KPDT VWP
shows a moderate amount of low-level veering. While the high-based
nature of the storms and limited buoyancy will keep the the tornado
threat low, a brief one is possible with stronger/persistent storms.
Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON   44752048 45791925 46781695 46921563 45951541 44261777
            43931864 44101994 44142030 44752048