Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...Northeast AR...Far Western TN...Far Northwest MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218...

Valid 152028Z - 152200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and/or isolated hail remain possible
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218. A downstream watch may be
needed if trends continue.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends with the ongoing cluster across
northern AR have shown a bit more easterly motion with northeastern
portion of the cluster. Overall updraft strength has waned a bit
co*pared to earlier, but the downstream air mass remains very
unstable with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. This
strong instability remains supportive of robust updrafts capable of
damaging wind gusts and/or isolated hail. A few isolated storms have
also developed ahead of the current line near the AR/TN border. As
previously noted, strong instability is present, supporting strong
updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts.

Current estimated storm motion around 35 kt takes the line to the
edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218 between 21 and 22Z. A
downstream watch may be needed over portions of northeastern AR, far
western TN, and far northwest MS if overall convective trends
continue.

..Mosier.. 05/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35279268 35739230 36219157 36389090 36399035 36308979
            36188961 35868950 35338962 34769003 34359076 34409181
            34749283 35279268