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Mesoscale Discussion 0770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151905Z - 152030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe storms are possible within
a weak surface trough this afternoon. Isolated wind damage and hail
up to 1 inch may occur. No watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating of a modestly moist (low/mid 60s F
dewpoints) airmass east of the Blue Ridge has slowly destabilized
the region. Convection within a weak surface trough has steadily
deepened throughout the day, with a stronger storm in south-central
Pennsylvania. As heating continues this afternoon, a few storms may
increase in intensity. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe
hail are possible within the most intense cores. Mid-level lapse
rates are not very steep as observed by the 12Z IAD/PIT soundings.
Furthermore, the region is within a low-amplitude ridge aloft and
deep layer shear is quite weak as a result. Severe-caliber storms
should remain isolated and brief.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   41277768 42257694 42827617 42577538 40737581 38917694
            38237797 38577876 38847894 41277768