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Mesoscale Discussion 0769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...Central/Southern IL...Western IN...Far Southeast
MO...Far Western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151903Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this
afternoon. Some storms could produce hail and/or damaging wind gusts
and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a few deeper convective
cores along the front in central IL. Additional storm development is
anticipated throughout the afternoon as the front continues to
gradually shift southeastward and the air mass further destabilizes.
The strongest buoyancy is anticipated across far southwest MO and
adjacent southern IL, where the low-level moisture is highest, with
a trend towards less buoyancy with northeastward extent. The lack of
stronger vertical shear will likely prevent storm organization,
favoring a predominantly multicellular storm mode. Even so, strong
updrafts capable of hail and/or damaging downbursts are possible,
and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   40318760 40138701 39848672 39258667 38098706 37878718
            37088786 36718909 36919023 38069075 38939037 40118846
            40318760