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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARK PLATEAU
VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms with swaths of wind damage, very
large hail, and a couple brief tornadoes are expected into this
evening across southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, eastern Oklahoma
and Arkansas. Other isolated severe storms will be possible later
this afternoon across the interior Pacific Northwest.

...Ozark Plateau to the Lower OH/MS/Red River Valleys...
Several clusters are ongoing across eastern KS and western MO, with
the leading cluster in west-central to southwest MO having a
reported history of sporadic wind and hail. With pronounced
boundary-layer heating occurring downstream, further intensification
is expected to the east-southeast as an MCV shifts towards the
confluence of the MS/OH rivers. Damaging winds and a brief tornado
or two will be the primary hazard in this regime.

Farther south and southwest, low 70s surface dew points beneath the
eastern plume of a stout elevated mixed layer over OK/TX, should
yield a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg by
mid-afternoon. Both warm-advection driven activity south of the MCV
track, as well as regenerative development along and behind the
trailing outflow will support supercells embedded within emerging
south-southeast tracking clusters. Most guidance has beco*e better
aligned in suggesting multiple bowing segments within the broader
northwest flow regime across eastern OK/western AR towards the Lower
Red River Valley mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.
Overall setup should support scattered swaths of golfball to
baseball size hail in semi-discrete supercells, and 60-80 mph
damaging winds within embedded bows. Some form of the MCSs should
make it as far east as the Lower OH Valley and as far south as the
Lower MS Valley and Ark-La-Tex, though the damaging wind threat will
be diminishing later this evening.

...Interior Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies...
A co*pact shortwave trough now off the OR/WA coast will move
northeast into southern British Columbia by evening. Heating of
boundary-layer dewpoints from the upper 40s to lower 50s and
increasing ascent with the approaching shortwave trough/front will
support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across
northeast OR. Though buoyancy will be weak with MLCAPE of 500-750
J/kg, strengthening wind profiles/deep-layer shear will support the
potential for organized convection, including a few supercells
and/or short line segments with an attendant threat for large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Convection should eventually
weaken in the ID Panhandle vicinity later this evening. 

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A diffuse surface trough should remain anchored from central NY
southward in the lee of the Appalachians. This should help focus
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and a few of the
storms could produce strong outflow winds and minor damage, along
with marginally severe hail in an environment characterized by weak
vertical shear and modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg.

...Eastern FL Peninsula...
Downstream of a low-amplitude upper trough in the eastern Gulf,
adequate vertical deep-layer shear will exist for a threat of
marginally severe hail and localized damaging winds amid isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.

..Grams/Wendt.. 05/15/2022