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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the southern/central High
Plains was expanded slightly northward into northeastern CO -- where
a couple lightning-induced ignitions will be possible during the
afternoon/early evening time frame. Elsewhere, the previous forecast
(see below) remains on track.

..Weinman.. 05/15/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will start to weaken on Monday as a series of weak
shortwave troughs move through the central Rockies. As a result,
weak lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in eastern Colorado. This
strengthening pressure gradient, co*bined with some deeper mixing
bringing stronger mid-level flow to the surface, should lead to 15
to 25 mph winds across portions of the Southwest and
southern/central High Plains. Some critical conditions appear
likely, but a more confined region where 20+ mph winds are
anticipated is not clear at this time. 

A dryline will be in place across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico on Monday which will separate single digit relative humidity
to the west from 20 to 25 percent relative humidity to the east.
Thunderstorms are likely along this dryline Monday afternoon in an
airmass with PWAT values at or below 0.8 inches. Therefore, any
storms which form will likely be drier. In addition, fuels in this
region are exceptionally dry which will further exacerbate fire
weather concerns from any dry thunderstorms.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...