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Mesoscale Discussion 0763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...parts of southern NE into northern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 150838Z - 151015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic near-severe hail is possible early this morning
across parts of southern NE into northern KS.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
will continue to shift southeast across parts of southern NE into
northern KS the next couple of hours. This activity is elevated
above a near-surface stable layer and a warm nose around 850 mb.
Nevertheless, effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will aid in at
least periodic storm organization amid weak MUCAPE and steep
midlevel lapse rates. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop through the early morning hours across southern NE and shift
south/southeast into KS. These storms may periodically produce
near-severe hail over the next few hours. As storms continue
southward across KS toward 12z, some intensification and better
organization may occur as convection encounters richer
boundary-layer moisture and increasing instability. However, the
overall severe threat should remain limited over the next few hours
by modest shear and instability, and a watch is not expected at this
time.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...to*...GID...

LAT...LON   40819775 40579689 40309633 40049613 39799611 39549623
            39439646 39459663 39439726 39459816 39769892 39959913
            40349966 40659984 40869980 40879958 40809816 40819775