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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Global models appear to be in reasonably good agreement through Day
6 across the U.S., moving a mid-level trough out of the Gulf of
Alaska and into/across the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Wednesday, and
then eastward into the northern Plains Day 5/Thursday, and then the
Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and into Ontario Day 6/Friday.

As the upper system advances, a cold front is forecast to emerge
from the northern Rockies into/across the northern and eventually
the central Plains.  Near this front and the evolving surface low,
focused ascent across the north-central States/Upper Mississippi
Valley region will likely result in afternoon/evening severe storms.
Along with potential for large hail and damaging winds, a few
tornadoes are also expected, given flow expected to veer favorably
through the lower half of the troposphere, while increasing in
magnitude with height, suggesting shear favorable for supercells.

Some severe risk may also evolve eastward across the Midwest/Ohio
Valley region, as a weak mid-level disturbance moves through
westerly flow aloft, near a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone. 
However, with the north-south positioning of this boundary
uncertain, and differing rather substantially in various models,
will not highlight this more uncertain risk with a 15% area at this
time.  

Steady advance of the upper trough, and associated cold front, will
continue Day 6, with the boundary forecast to extend from the Upper
Great Lakes to the southern Plains through the afternoon.  Once
again, a favorably moist/destabilizing warm sector will lead to
severe-storm development near and ahead of the front, as the eastern
fringe of stronger southwesterlies aloft spread atop the frontal
zone, yield shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms.  Large
hail and damaging winds would appear to be the primary risks, along
with some potential for tornadoes.

As model solutions deviate Day 7, mainly with respect to the portion
of the trough trailing southward out of eastern Canada into the
U.S., convective evolution beco*es more uncertain, precluding any
areal highlights through the end of the period.