Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of far southeast KS and northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 150623Z - 150800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic large hail will be possible with thunderstorms
across far southeast KS into northeast OK the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed
from near the OK/KS border southeastward into Mayes County OK. This
activity is occurring ahead of an eastward-advancing outflow
boundary extending across eastern Osage and Creek Counties. A
co*pact vorticity max associated with earlier convection across
western KS/northwest OK is also noted in water vapor imagery
shifting east/southeast across northern OK in northwesterly flow
aloft. Coupled with weak low-level moist confluence amid moderate
instability, these storms will likely continue for at least a couple
of hours. Weak deep-layer flow and effective shear magnitudes less
than 25 kt may limit storm organization, but 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 7-7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates will support robust updrafts at
times. Sporadic large hail will be possible with the strongest
storms as they slow drift generally eastward the next couple of
hours. Given weak shear and only briefly-organized cells, and
limited expected spatial coverage, a watch is not expected at this
time.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36739602 36949622 37109632 37239627 37319610 37329580
            37309572 37219532 36969490 36599468 36269464 36119473
            36059480 36059507 36419563 36739602