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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and
southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio
Valley today. Scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
the primary threats, with the greatest risk expected from northeast
Oklahoma and southeast Kansas into the Ozarks. Isolated strong to
severe storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps large hail are also
possible in parts of the Northwest.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move from the central Plains
southeastward through the mid MS Valley during the day today, and
eventually into the lower Great Lakes late tonight. A weak surface
low will persist over OK into the evening, as a cold front moves
southward through the central Plains, Ozark Plateau, and Midwest.
Further west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move from the
interior Northwest toward the Northern Rockies. 

...Central/southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
A substantial severe threat may evolve across parts of eastern KS/OK
into the Ozark Plateau, though considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the evolution of early-day convection as it spreads
southeastward through the day. 

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period this
morning across northern KS into far southern NE. Hail and perhaps
strong wind gusts will be possible with this initial activity. This
convection may evolve into an MCS that will move southeastward in
conjunction with the approaching shortwave trough and associated the
cold front. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates and moderate-to-strong
buoyancy will favor intensification of ongoing convection into the
afternoon, along with the potential for somewhat more discrete
development further west along the cold front into a larger portion
of central/eastern OK. 

Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for organized storm
structures as northwesterly midlevel flow increases through the day.
Any well-organized MCS that can evolve and move through the warm
sector from the late morning into the afternoon could produce a
swath of damaging wind gusts, given the very favorable thermodynamic
profiles in place. A conditional threat for very large hail and
perhaps a tornado or two will also be present with any sustained
semi-discrete cells that may develop along the convective outflow
and/or the primary cold front. Wind and/or hail probabilities may
need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, depending on
shorter-term observational and guidance trends. 

...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley...
The potential for early-day MCS development to the west leads to
some uncertainty regarding the severe threat across portions of the
mid MS Valley into the OH Valley during the afternoon and evening.
However, moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front and
increasing deep-layer shear will support strong thunderstorm
development from eastern MO into southern IL during the afternoon,
potentially spreading eastward toward the OH Valley by evening.
Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected to be the
primary threats in this area.  

...Northwest...
In advance of the approaching shortwave trough, convection is
expected to develop late this afternoon across parts of southeast WA
and northeast OR. Buoyancy is expected to be modest at best (MLCAPE
generally 500 J/kg or less), but effective shear of 40-50 kt will
support a couple of organized clusters and/or supercells which could
pose an isolated severe wind/hail risk. Some severe threat will
spread into portions of ID and perhaps western MT before a general
weakening trend later tonight. 

...Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
Diurnal heating of a relatively moist environment will promote
scattered thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. Weak
shear and modest mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity,
but a few stronger wind gusts and marginally severe hail may occur.

..Dean/Bentley.. 05/15/2022