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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NEW YORK SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are expected Monday from central New
York/western New England southward into the Southeast.  Locally
damaging winds and some hail will be the primary severe risks,
though a tornado or two will also be possible during the afternoon.

...Central New York and western New England southward to the
Southeast...
A vigorous mid-level trough is progged to shift eastward across the
Ohio Valley and into the Northeast/Mid Atlantic region Monday,
acquiring increasing negative tilt with time.  Very strong
westerly/cyclonic flow will acco*pany this system, which will
overspread the warm sector of a sharp cold front that will shift
east of the Appalachians through midday/early afternoon.

As the seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary layer heats through the
afternoon, destabilization will fuel development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms.  Given the aforementioned strong flow aloft,
storms will quickly organize, some growing into fast-moving
clusters.  Along with risk for hail, damaging winds should be beco*e
increasingly widespread through the afternoon.

Additionally, low-level southerly/south-southeasterly flow is
forecast, particularly from portions of Virginia northward into New
York.  Resulting enhancement to the low-level shear suggests
potential for a couple of tornadoes, as well.

Storms/severe risk will continue through the afternoon and into the
evening, until the front nears/clears the coast.  Risk will diminish
with southward extent from the Carolinas southward, where flow aloft
will be a bit weaker.  Still, locally strong wind gusts may occur as
far south as Georgia during peak afternoon convective intensity.

..Goss.. 05/15/2022