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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are expected Monday from eastern New
York/western New England southward into the Southeast.  Locally
damaging winds and some hail will be the primary severe risks,
though a tornado is also possible during the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A rather vigorous upper trough is forecast to sweep across the
eastern U.S. Monday, along with a belt of strong cyclonic mid-level
westerlies.  Meanwhile upstream, a rather broad ridge will affect
much of the western and central CONUS.

At the surface, a cold front -- lying west of the Appalachians at
the start of the period, will advance quickly eastward, cresting the
mountains through midday, and then continuing steadily eastward to
clear the New England and Middle Atlantic Coasts by the end of the
period.

...Eastern New York/western New England southward into the
Southeast...
As a cold front shifts east of the higher terrain of the
Appalachians during the day, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist
boundary layer will result in gradual warm-sector destabilization. 
As a result, expect a gradual increase in convection near and ahead
of the advancing cold front.  

With a 60 to 70 kt cyclonic/westerly mid-level jet streak forecast
to spread across the central Appalachians/New England, shear will
favor organized/fast-moving storms, and attendant risk for locally
damaging winds.  Greatest risk will likely extend southward across
Virginia, and then diminishing with southwestward extent across the
Southeast where flow aloft will remain markedly weaker.

Risk should also diminish as storms near the New England and Mid
Atlantic Coasts, where cooler Atlantic low-level air should maintain
a stable boundary layer.

..Goss.. 05/14/2022