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Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota to northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 120020Z - 120215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may develop through the
evening hours and pose a risk for sporadic severe hail. Storm
coverage and longevity remain questionable given modest forcing for
ascent; a watch is not likely.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery shows a couple of deeper
convective towers with overshooting tops developing across western
MN near/north of the I-94 corridor. To the west across central ND,
an elongated line of storms is gradually deepening as well. This
activity is largely being driven by a broad warm advection regime at
around 850 mb. Despite somewhat cool/stable conditions at the
surface, this lift is occurring at around the most-unstable parcel
LFC. Mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km atop a warm/moist layer
near 850 mb is supporting 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Veering winds
within the effective inflow layer coupled with 50-60 knot winds
aloft is supporting sufficient bulk shear for some storm
organization. Given the elevated nature of the convection, severe
hail will likely remain the primary hazard. The banded (and somewhat
weak) nature of the ascent may limit storm organization, longevity,
and coverage through the evening hours. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but a watch is not anticipated.

..Moore/Broyles.. 05/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47169997 47819863 48229645 48229548 47869438 47269399
            46639412 46259478 46019625 46009713 46219828 46389959
            46630006 46820015 47169997