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Mesoscale Discussion 0727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Colorado...far southwest
Kansas...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 120005Z - 120200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail/damaging gusts are possible
with the strongest sustained storms. The severe threat is expected
to remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...While overall convective coverage has decreased over
the past couple of hours, a couple longer-lived, left-moving
supercells have produced severe winds/hail (especially across the
far northwest Texas Panhandle). Areas ahead of a diffuse dryline
have already experienced peak surface heating amid weak upper
support, suggesting that an uptick in convective coverage will
remain unlikely. Until nocturnal cooling and boundary-layer
stability sets in though, modest buoyancy will remain in place ahead
of the ongoing storms given the presence of a deeply mixed boundary
layer overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The KAMA VAD
profiler depicts a relatively straight hodograph, indicative of
continued splitting cells with large hail potential (given the steep
mid-level lapse rates). As long as the boundary-layer remains
well-mixed (with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km), efficient
downward momentum transport via evaporative cooling will support a
damaging gust with any storms that can mature. Still, the overall
severe threat should remain sparse and a WW issuance is not
expected.

..Squitieri.. 05/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   34450270 37120242 39440178 39640099 39330060 38500066
            37160118 35870155 34760197 34540238 34450270