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Mesoscale Discussion 0723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota...southwest
Minnesota...northwest Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 202...

Valid 112052Z - 112245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 202 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail, wind, and tornado risk persist mainly from
southeast South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. Hail may eventually
occur north of the tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...An MCV continues to move rapidly north, now crossing
the MO River out of northeast NE, with arcing line of storms
extending southeastward along the valley.  Meanwhile, other storms
currently extend from west of FSD north and eastward into southwest
MN near the warm front.

Surface observations show a cool boundary layer along the warm
front, which has recently beco*e reinforced by outflows. In
addition, dewpoints continue to fall in the well-mixed air across
IA. The result is a relatively narrow zone of tornado potential over
the next few hours, from southeast SD eastward along the front into
southern MN. Any supercells in this zone may produce a brief
tornado, but meridional flow aloft near the MCV may push cells
quickly north of the boundary where they will beco*e elevated.

Other storms nearing northern parts of the watch may persist in
elevated fashion, with substantial elevated instability supporting a
hail risk as deep-layer effective shear favors severe hail.

..Jewell.. 05/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   42459675 42609776 43279791 45109834 45209791 45169639
            45039543 44529456 43969404 43569430 43049478 42599515
            42399580 42459675