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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....

...Southern/central High Plains...
Minor changes have been made along the eastern end of the Critical
area based on the latest guidance. Overnight
thunderstorms/precipitation and the position of the dryline/lee
trough suggests some uncertainty on the eastern bound of the
critical conditions, especially across far eastern Colorado. A few
lightning strikes may also interact with dry fuel beds across the
region, though storm coverage and mode are not expected to support
IsoDryT probabilities at this time.

Localized extremely critical conditions may also develop around mid
day across portions of the Foothills in the immediate lee of the
Front Range. The strong west/southwesterly flow interacting with
terrain gaps may support occasional gusts to 40+ mph concurrent with
the single digit humidity values across the High Plains. However,
confidence in widespread extremely critical conditions is lower
owing to recent reductions in sustained wind speeds by the latest
guidance. See the previous forecast for more information.

..Lyons.. 05/11/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and associated surface low will eject into the
northern Plains tomorrow/Thursday, with dry westerly surface flow
occurring in their wake across portions of the southern and central
High Plains. Strong mid-level flow aligned roughly perpendicular to
the Rockies, along with robust boundary-layer mixing and surface
gradient winds, will all serve to promote very strong downslope flow
along the lee of the central and southern Rockies tomorrow
afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 25+ mph sustained
westerly surface winds overlapping 10-15 percent RH from the
Colorado/Nebraska border into northeast New Mexico. With anomalously
dry fuels in place (widespread ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile),
high-end Critical conditions are expected, with at least locally
Extremely Critical conditions likely in terrain-favoring areas, and
where stronger wind gusts can develop. If guidance consensus depicts
any increase in wind speeds or further decrease in RH, Extremely
Critical highlights may be introduced in future outlooks.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...