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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

CORRECTED FOR REMOVAL OF DOUBLED OUTLOOK LINES

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm winds will be a hazard over parts of the
southern High Plains today into this evening, along with isolated
hail.  Very large hail, isolated severe gusts and a tornado threat
will develop this afternoon over parts of Wisconsin and vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Little change is expected through this period in the highly
amplified, positively tilted, mid/upper-level pattern across the
CONUS.  Mean troughing will persist from northern Canada, west of
Hudson Bay, across the U.S. Northwest and CA.  A broad,
intermittently closed cyclone -- initially located over parts of
northern CA, western OR and adjoining Pacific waters -- is expected
to move slowly southeastward, its 500-mb low reaching central CA
near FAT by 12Z tomorrow.  As that occurs, height rises are expected
over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

A southern-stream perturbation is evident in moisture-channel
imagery over western Chihuahua and parts of Sinaloa in northwestern
MX.  This feature will move northeastward today, reaching parts of
far west TX and NM, the proceed to the southern High Plains by the
end of the period.  Elsewhere, a large, long-lasting, cut-off 
synoptic cyclone east of the Carolinas will begin to retrograde
southwestward today, while its center remains well offshore.  A very
long ridge will persist from central MX across the Arklatex, lower
Ohio Valley, southern ON, and southern QC.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a low over north-central KS between
HYS-CNK, with a warm to quasistationary front northeastward to a
weak low and outflow-boundary intersection over southwestern WI. The
outflow boundary extended eastward from there across southern Lake
Michigan, and should retreat northward over southern/central WI
today while beco*ing more poorly defined.  Farther north, the front
was drawn north-northeastward from southwestern WI across western
Upper MI, and should move little through most of the day before
settling southward tonight.  A weak cold to stationary front trailed
from the KS low across the northern TX Panhandle to southeastern CO,
and should move little through the period.  The dryline intersected
that front near P28, and extended across the western OK/TX border
region, to near LBB, FST and the Big Bend region.  The dryline may
retreat somewhat westward/northwestward across the Panhandle, South
Plains and Permian Basin today.

...Southern High Plains...
Highly variable thunderstorm coverage (from isolated to numerous) is
possible in the outlook area today.  The most probable area for a
relatively dense concentration of convection should begin with
early/organizing stages this afternoon over the South
Plains/southern Panhandle/Permian Basin area.  Activity then should
aggregate upscale and move eastward to northeastward off the
Caprock, then and across parts of northwest TX and southwestern OK
this evening.  Severe wind -- with at least isolated downdrafts
potentially reaching 65-kt significant criteria, should acco*pany
this activity.  Despite a lack of stronger flow aloft,
thermodynamically supported potential exists for cold-pool mergers
and forward propagation to drive severe-thunderstorm clusters
eastward into a slowly stabilizing nocturnal boundary layer over
more of northwest TX and western OK this evening, before activity
weakens with continued inflow-layer stabilization.

Initiation will be supported by a co*bination of dryline lift,
intense surface heating and related MLCINH removal along/east of the
dryline, steep low/middle-level lapse rates ahead of the ejecting MX
perturbation, and favorable low-level moisture.  Surface dew points
ranging from the mid 50s F just east of the dryline, to the mid-60s
east of the Caprock, will support MLCAPE co*monly 3000-4000 J/kg,
atop a deep, well-mixed subcloud layer supporting around 1500 J/kg
DCAPE.  Modest mid/upper winds and related lack of more-robust
vertical shear will keep activity predominantly multicellular in
mode, though large hail may be noted, mainly in earlier stages of
the convective process while convection is still rather discrete.

...WI and vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across western/northern parts of the outlook area and move roughly
eastward into an increasingly favorable environment for supercells,
with severe hail (some of it very large/damaging at 2+ inches
diameter), a tornado threat, and sporadic damaging gusts.

Amidst ambient, weak height rises, large-scale support aloft will be
minimal at most.  However, that should be more than offset for the
purpose of severe potential by moderately to strongly unstable
thermodynamic profiles, weak capping, boundaries, and favorable deep
shear.  As the outflow boundary retreats northward today and
diffuses, a co*bination of diurnal heating and most advection will
contribute to substantial low-level destabilization, with surface
dew points increasing to the mid/upper 60s at least into
southern/central WI.  This will support peak/preconvective MLCAPE
increasing into the 2500-4000 J/kg range over southern and central
WI, diminishing northward into southern Upper MI.  Forecast
orientation and strength of deep-shear vectors suggests convection
can maintain discrete to semi-discrete modes well into maturation,
with supercell potential in the thermodynamically favorably modified
outflow environment.  Two-dimensional hail models applied to
forecast soundings reasonably suggest any supercells over the region
could produce very large and damaging hail.

Considerable uncertainty, and inconsistency in guidance, remains as
to the potential for upscale growth of convection across the region,
and the potential for any such activity to coalesce cold pools
enough to transition to a forward-propagational co*plex.  Should
that occur, severe potential may extend across Lake Michigan into
western Lower MI and/or northern IL, aside from any isolated
convection that may develop over those areas during the daytime.

..Edwards/Gleason.. 05/10/2022