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Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE COLOR

...SUMMARY...
Well-organized severe storms are expected to evolve from the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota southward into the central Plains Thursday. 
Very large hail and damaging winds are expected, along with
potential for a couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject out of the
Rockies and across the central and northern Plains Thursday, taking
on increasingly negative tilt as it does.  Meanwhile, a large
upper-level cyclone will continue to drift westward, shifting into
the southeastern states through the period.

At the surface, a deepening low is progged to move northward across
the Dakotas through the day, and then should rapidly occlude and
shift northwestward overnight, eventually reaching southeastern
Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba by the end of the period. 
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will cross the northern and central
Plains through the afternoon and evening, to a position from the
western Upper Great Lakes southwestward to western Texas by 13/12Z.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward to the
southern High Plains...
Steep lapse rates aloft atop a moist/diurnally heating boundary
layer will result in strong destabilization across the northern and
central Plains, within the warm sector of the evolving surface
system.  As a developing cold front advances eastward, strong ascent
will help to weaken -- and eventually eliminate -- capping.  This
will lead to afternoon storm development near the front, along with
an expansion of elevated storm coverage north of the warm front over
northern portions of the outlook area.

Initial storms should intensify rapidly given the degree of CAPE
expected, and aided by favorably strong flow through a deep layer
that will overspread the area in conjunction with the advancing
upper system.  Along with risk for very large hail, damaging winds
an a couple of tornadoes can be expected during the afternoon with
severe/supercell storms.  Greatest risk will likely evolve from
southeastern North Dakota and adjacent west-central Minnesota
southward into eastern Nebraska, and then spread eastward with time
as upscale storm growth likely results in an at least
semi-continuous line of severe storms.  While risk for large hail
and a couple of tornadoes should continue well into the evening,
potential for widespread damaging winds appears likely to increase
with time presuming the anticipated/gradual evolution toward a more
linear convective event.

Farther south, across Kansas and western Oklahoma and into western
Texas, storm coverage should be more limited, and severe risk
somewhat more muted.  Still, local risk for large hail and strong
winds will exist with a few of the stronger afternoon and evening
storms.

..Goss.. 05/10/2022