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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions
of the southern High Plains late in the day Tuesday, acco*panied by
a hail/wind risk.  A couple of severe storms bringing all-hazards
potential are expected across the central/eastern Wisconsin area
during the afternoon and early evening.

...Wisconsin Area...

Upper ridging is forecast to build north across the mid MS
Valley/Midwest region Tuesday as one dominant upper low digs into
the southwestern US and another holds off the southeast coast.
Although heights will build across WI, modest southwesterly
mid-level flow will be maintained into central portions of the state
where 500mb flow should be on the order of 30-40kt. 

Early this morning, a broken line of convection has propagated into
central WI-northeast IA, with more isolated activity trailing into
southwest IA. Remnants of this activity will propagate southeast by
daybreak and likely weaken by the start of the period. Latest model
guidance suggest a weak surface wave may evolve along the boundary
over IA then drift into central WI during the afternoon. While
low-level convergence is not expected to be that strong, weak LLJ
will extend across eastern IA into southern WI. Low-level warm
advection and some boundary-layer heating should contribute to
renewed thunderstorm development within the warm advection zone
immediately ahead of the surface wave. Forecast soundings suggest
ample deep-layer flow for sustained updrafts, and isolated
supercells should ultimately evolve during the afternoon across this
region. Initially convection may develop atop cooler boundary layer,
then within the warm sector where low-level moisture/buoyancy should
prove more favorable for the possibility for a couple of tornadoes.
Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are expected with the
strongest activity.

...Southern High Plains...

Strengthening mid-level anticyclone over the MS Valley is
contributing to a significant westward push to deeper moisture
across TX into the southern High Plains early this morning. Dryline
has retreated to western OK, northwest TX, to near FST at 05z and
this demarcation will likely move into extreme southeast NM where it
will serve as the focus for convection by late afternoon. Latest
hr** model guidance is fairly aggressive in developing convection
across the southern High Plains as temperatures rise through the
90s, and the lowest 3km lapse rates steepen into the 8.5-9 C/km
range. Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave
trough over northern Mexico. This feature is lifting northeast and
will likely contribute to large-scale support for convection by
afternoon. While stronger 500mb flow should hold across the southern
Rockies, modest deep-layer flow/shear will exist for organized
multi-cell clusters and supercells. With modest LLJ across the
southern High Plains, it appears scattered strong/severe
thunderstorms will propagate east during the evening, and this is
supported by latest hr** guidance. Large hail and damaging winds are
expected with this activity.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 05/10/2022