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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ALSO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may develop across parts of the central and
northern Great Plains Sunday night and pose a primary risk of severe
hail. An isolated severe storm or two will also be possible across
north Texas late this afternoon into this evening.

...Synopsis...
The longwave trough over the western CONUS is forecast to deepen
today, as a 150+ kt upper-level jet rotates into the base of the
trough from the eastern Pacific. A surface cyclone will deepen over
the central High Plains this afternoon and move northeastward toward
the mid-Missouri Valley by Monday morning. Rich low-level moisture
will stream northward into the central Plains in conjunction with
this cyclone, but warm-sector thunderstorm development should be
limited by capping associated with a stout EML. 

...Dakotas/Nebraska into western MN...
Stronger instability is expected to remain south of the northern
Plains during the day, but a pocket of modest MLCAPE (500-1000 J/kg)
may develop by late afternoon across northern SD into southern ND,
where 50s F dewpoints will reside underneath rather cool midlevel
temperatures. Low-level flow will be weak, but rather strong
midlevel flow will support 40-50 kt of effective shear, and an
isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon/early evening, which would pose a threat of large hail. 

Overnight, vigorous elevated convection may develop to the north of
the surface cyclone and attendant warm front, as a strong low-level
jet transports richer moisture into the region beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. Moderate elevated buoyancy and strong
deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for elevated
supercells capable of producing large hail and locally gusty winds.
CAM guidance varies regarding the supercell potential overnight,
with a few 00Z hr** members depicting longer-tracked supercells
(though in somewhat different corridors), while other members show
less-organized elevated convection. A categorical upgrade may
eventually be needed for the late-night potential if confidence
increases regarding the coverage and placement of any elevated
supercell risk. 

...North TX...
A conditionally favorable environment will again be present
along/east of the dryline across the southern Great Plains. co*pared
to Saturday, there is a somewhat better signal among most hr**
members for initiation across north TX, perhaps due to a transition
from midlevel ridging to a more cyclonic regime aloft. Confidence in
sustained storm development is still not high, but intense heating
near the dryline may support initiation of one or two storms within
a strongly unstable and modestly sheared environment. Any storms
that develop would pose a threat of large hail and localized
downbursts.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/08/2022