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Mesoscale Discussion 0675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Areas affected...Northern North Carolina and southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 061753Z - 062000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development is likely
through mid to late afternoon.  This may include a few supercells
with the potential to produce tornadoes, in addition to severe hail,
by 3-5 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Broad surface troughing to the lee of the southern
Appalachians is deepening, with a surface warm frontal zone beco*ing
better defined while advancing into a corridor extending from the
North Carolina Piedmont into the southeastern Virginia/northeastern
North Carolina Tidewater vicinity.  Along and south of the frontal
zone, boundary-layer moistening (including surface dew points rising
through the upper 60s to around 70F) appears to be contributing to
moderately large CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg with continued
insolation.

Forcing associated with a sheared lead mid-level impulse progressing
east of the the southern Appalachians has supported an arc of
deepening convective development and initiating thunderstorm
development across the North Carolina and South Carolina Piedmont. 
This will continue to spread east-northeastward toward the southern
Mid Atlantic coastal plain through 19-21Z.  Aided by ascent driven
by low-level warm advection, intensifying thunderstorm development
probably will focus along and immediately north of the warm frontal
zone, where deep-layer shear is beco*ing sufficient for supercells
beneath 30-50 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow.

Although southerly flow around 850 is somewhat modest in strength
(around 20-30 kt), low-level shear and ambient vertical vorticity
along the warm frontal zone may be sufficient to promote a risk for
tornadoes.  Otherwise, stronger cells may be acco*panied by a risk
for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   37147685 35787604 35367952 35628107 36608055 37147685