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Mesoscale Discussion 0658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern AR...northwest MS...and southwest
TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 051702Z - 051930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe thunderstorms will gradually increase
and spread east-northeastward this afternoon. A watch may eventually
be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KLZK shows an expanding cluster
of storms spreading east-northeastward across parts of southern AR.
Across the pre-convective environment, visible satellite loops show
increasing boundary-layer destabilization characterized by deepening
horizontal convective rolls amid diurnal heating of a moist airmass
(middle/upper 60s surface dewpoints). As the ongoing convection
begins to interact with the destabilizing surface-based inflow and
large-scale ascent gradually increases across the area, the severe
risk will increase. Regional VWP data shows favorable deep-layer
flow/shear oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective
cluster, which should continue to favor upscale growth amid minimal
CINH. This will generally support a risk for damaging gusts, though
any north/south-oriented co*ponent of the line could favor a couple
mesovortex tornadoes and perhaps isolated large hail. Watch issuance
may eventually be needed.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34349197 34589153 34949099 35199071 35379043 35729007
            35898979 36018941 35988912 35848873 35618857 35188852
            34948869 34678904 34278954 33749026 33289136 33329212
            33469265 33889270 34119241 34349197