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Mesoscale Discussion 0630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

Areas affected...East-central Oklahoma into central Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...

Valid 030253Z - 030430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds will beco*e the primary threat as
quasi-linear storms move into WW 172. Some tornado risk will remain
with line-embedded circulations. These risks will maximize
near/south of the warm front that will slowly move north.

DISCUSSION...Quasi-linear storms with embedded bowing segments
continue across eastern Oklahoma. These storms will approach the
Arkansas/Oklahoma border within the next hour or so. Part of this
activity will likely remain north of the warm front, though the
boundary will shift northward some as the surface low shifts into
Missouri. While damaging winds are expected to beco*e the primary
threat, low-level shear will continue to support some threat for
QLCS tornadoes along the line as well. These threats should be
maximized near and just south of of the warm front. With increasing
convective inhibition with time, a weakening trend is expected by
the time storms move into parts of central/southern Arkansas. WW 172
is set to expire at 11 PM CDT, though some storms will still be
ongoing. Local temporal extension or replacement of the watch may be
needed.

..Wendt.. 05/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35479502 35999454 36079396 35539269 34999217 34289216
            33809284 33869353 34279431 34759503 35049532 35479502