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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Ohio
Valley southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western Great
Lakes and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, as an associated 45 to 60
knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the mid to upper Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into
the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the Ohio Valley will increase into the lower to mid 60s
F, with moderate instability developing across much of the moist
sector. Although elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing ahead of
the trough during morning, surface-based storms are expected to
develop near and ahead of the front during the afternoon from
south-central Ohio southwestward into northern and western Kentucky.
Increasing low-level convergence along the front will contribute to
a ramp up in storm coverage during the mid to late afternoon. At
that time, MLCAPE is forecast to peak ahead of the front in the 1200
to 2000 J/kg range. Several line segments or small cell clusters are
expected to develop along the instability axis and move eastward
into the foothills of the Appalachians by early evening.

In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z
from Columbus, Ohio southwestward to Louisville, Kentucky have
strong speed shear in the low to mid-levels with winds veered to the
southwest. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range
suggesting supercells will be possible. But the more likely storm
mode will be multicellular given the veered wind profiles. As such,
linear mode may dominate. This would make wind damage the most
likely severe threat, along the leading edge of the more intense
line segments. Any threat would be concentrated in the late
afternoon when low-level lapse rates peak. But an isolated severe
threat could persist into the early evening as cells move eastward
into the western foothills of the Appalachians.

..Broyles.. 05/02/2022