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Mesoscale Discussion 0611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles
and far eastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 012018Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail will be a threat with any
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. Severe wind gusts may
also occur. Watch issuance is likely by 22Z (5 PM CDT).

DISCUSSION...Low/mid-level moisture continues to stream northward
this afternoon across northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles and far
eastern NM. Recent VWPs from KAMA/KLBB suggest a 20-30 kt southerly
low-level jet is aiding this moisture transport. However, surface
dewpoints across this region are still rather modest as of 20Z,
generally ranging from the low to mid 50s in northwest TX to mid 30s
in the OK Panhandle. Still, even with this somewhat limited
moisture, steep lapse rates around 7.5-8.0 C/km in the 700-500 mb
layer are contributing to around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE across
this region. Around 30-40 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow will
foster similar values of deep-layer shear, and updraft organization
appears likely with any thunderstorms that can develop this
afternoon.

Recent visible satellite imagery shows the cu field gradually
beco*ing more agitated across far eastern NM. Current expectations
are for isolated to scattered supercells to develop along/near the
NM/TX border over the next couple of hours. This initial activity
will probably be slightly elevated and pose mainly a threat for
large to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail. It also appears
possible that some left-split supercells may develop northeastward
from parts of west TX into northwest TX later this afternoon and
early evening. These supercells would also pose a threat for
isolated very large hail. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer,
some severe wind gusts also appear possible through convective
downdraft accelerations. The tornado threat is low at the moment
this afternoon with the limited low-level moisture in place.
However, a couple tornadoes may eventually be possible later this
evening as surface dewpoints increase into the upper 50s to low 60s
and the low-level jet gradually strengthens. Watch issuance is
likely in the next couple of hours as convective initiation beco*es
increasingly probable.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32990301 33610302 33610369 34720384 36020386 36690323
            36950219 36890068 36460004 33010011 32990301