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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEW
MEXICO...

Critical fire weather conditions remain likely for much of northern
AZ and western to central NM. Mid-morning RH values are already
falling under 15% across most of the region, and will see further
reduction through mid afternoon. Uncertainty regarding the position
of the dryline (and the eastward extent of the fire weather threat)
has diminished somewhat with most guidance co*ing into better
agreement over the past 12 hours. The eastern extent of the Critical
risk area currently delineates where confidence is highest in the
afternoon dryline position, though deviations to the east/west are
possible.  

The dryline position will also denote the western extent of
thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. Forecast
soundings along and just east of the dryline show sufficient
low-level moisture to support convection, but reveal a deep,
well-mixed boundary layer that may support limited rainfall at the
surface with initial thunderstorms. Rainfall rates will increase as
storms intensify and move east towards the TX border, but a narrow
corridor of dry-thunderstorm potential may emerge across the eastern
Plains of NM. Critically dry fuels already in place will support the
potential for lightning starts, warranting the isolated
dry-thunderstorm risk area. Thunderstorms developing across this
region may also pose a hail/wind risk (see the latest Day 1
Convective Outlook for additional details).

..Moore.. 05/01/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022/

...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move through the Great Basin and into
the Southwest today. At the surface, a dryline will set up in
eastern New Mexico with a Pacific cold front moving through the
Great Basin. Fire weather concerns will be focused between these
boundaries.

...Southwest and southern/eastern Great Basin...
Regional soundings from Saturday evening show very dry air at low
levels. With poor overnight RH recovery expected, Elevated to
Critical conditions will likely being relatively early in the day.
Strong winds will develop in response to the deepening surface low
in the Colorado Plateau as well as increasing mid-level winds. RH by
afternoon will generally fall to 5-15%, with some locations seeing
closer to 20%. The strongest winds will occur north of the Mogollon
Rim into eastern Utah and western Colorado due to their position
beneath the mid-level jet. Here, 25-35 mph winds with higher gusts
are expected. Extremely Critical meteorological conditions are
possible north of the Rim, though low fuel loading should mitigate
large fire potential. Winds of 20-25 mph are probable into much of
New Mexico. Farther south and west, winds are generally expected to
be lighter at 15-20 mph, though briefly Critical conditions may
still occur.

The primary uncertainty in this forecast will be how far east fire
weather concerns will extend onto the plains of eastern New Mexico.
Dryline position varies within guidance. Given this uncertainty, no
adjustments will be made to highlights. However, these highlights
may need to be adjusted westward as the dryline position beco*es
more observationally clear.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...