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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEW
MEXICO...

The ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed based on recent fuel guidance and trends in latest model
solutions. Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions
remains high across northern AZ into western and central NM.
Localized critical conditions may extend as far north as northeast
UT/northwest CO into far southwest WY, but marginal fuel status as
well as clouds and scattered precipitation reduce confidence in the
northern extent of the fire weather threat. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 04/30/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022/

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move through the southern Great Basin and
into the Southwest and Sunday. A surface low will deepen within the
Colorado Plateau and eventually in the lee of the southern Rockies.
Strong winds and dry surface conditions are expected between a
Pacific cold front in the Great Basin and a dryline in eastern New
Mexico.

...Southern Great Basin and Southwest...
With the mid-level jet moving across northern Arizona and northern
New Mexico, surface winds of 25-35 mph are possible within these
areas. Outside of this more favorable region, surface winds of 15-25
mph are expected. Minimum RH values of 5-15% will be co*mon. Broadly
Critical fire weather is likely across much of New Mexico into
northern Arizona. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible
in north of the Mogollon Rim into northwest New Mexico. However,
these conditions will either be brief or occur where fuel loading is
typically quite low.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...