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Mesoscale Discussion 0584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Areas affected...South-central NE into north-central KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 157...158...

Valid 292255Z - 300030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 157, 158 continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind risk will likely increase this evening,
in addition to the ongoing threat of hail and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorms have increased in coverage over
the last 30-60 minutes across south-central NE into far
north-central KS, in response to notable low-level moist advection
occurring just to the north of a deepening surface cyclone. A
favorably veering wind profile with height (noted on recent KUEX
VWP) will continue to support supercell structures, though a
continued tendency toward storm mergers and upscale growth appears
likely, as storms consolidate along an accelerating cold front.

The upscale evolution will likely lead to increasing risk of
strong/damaging wind gusts, with one or more swaths of potentially
significant wind (75 mph or greater) possible. Moderate buoyancy and
downstream 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will also support a
tornado risk with any embedded supercell structures, and potentially
with any QLCS mesovortices that may evolve with time.

..Dean.. 04/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...to*...GID...

LAT...LON   41579879 41689825 41529751 40639761 39899791 39849838
            39789909 40149951 40829893 41579879