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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible Friday
afternoon into Friday night across portions of the southern and
central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...

A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will be centered from the northern
Intermountain region to the southern Rockies Friday morning. This
system is expected to shift east through the period, emerging over
the Plains by evening. As this occurs, an upper low is expected to
close over the central Plains. This will focus the strongest flow,
forcing for ascent and upper divergence from far northern OK into KS
and NE. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen over
western KS and shift east near the KS/NE border through evening
before lifting northeast toward southeast SD overnight. A dryline
will extend southward from the low across central KS into central
OK/TX by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward
through the period, extending from the low near central NE into
southern IA during the afternoon/evening. Low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints (with some pockets of upper 60s F possible with southward
extent) will reside within the warm sector. A surface cold front
will surge southeast during the evening/overnight, eventually
overtaking the dryline and beco*ing positioned from southwest IA
into western MO, southeast OK and north-central TX by Saturday
morning. 

...NE/KS into the Lower MO Valley...

Forecast guidance indicates a strong midlevel cap will erode by late
afternoon amid increasing ascent and low-level moist advection.
Backed low-level winds near the triple point will result in enlarged
low-level hodographs with forecast effective shear magnitudes around
35-45 kt. Backed low-level flow will also enhance low-level shear,
with SRH values increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2. This will be
favorable for rotating supercells, and a few tornadoes are possible.
Very steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg will
support large to very large hail. Initial supercell activity may
eventually grow into clusters as the cold front surges east during
the evening, resulting in a potential transition toward damaging
gusts and hail as convection spreads east/northeast into parts of
the MO Valley.

...OK/TX...

A somewhat more conditional threat will extend southward along the
dryline into OK/TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this
area. Additionally, guidance suggest the stout capping inversion
will remain intact across much of the area through peak heating.
However, a narrow corridor along the dryline appears likely to
beco*e uncapped during the afternoon amid strong heating and
increasing low-level moisture. If these cells develop, supercells
capable of all severe hazards will be possible across parts of
central OK into northwest TX. As the cold front develops southeast
during the late evening/overnight, elevated storms are more likely
to shift east across the area. This activity will mainly pose a risk
for large hail.

..Leitman.. 04/27/2022