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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it tracks
northeastward across the Southwest. Enhanced west-southwesterly
midlevel flow acco*panying the trough will overspread the
south-central Rockies, encouraging lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO
with a diffuse dryline extending southward across eastern NM.
Farther east, strong westerly midlevel flow on the backside of a
large-scale trough will cross the Mid-Atlantic states, where a dry
post-frontal airmass will be in place.

...Southwest into the Southern and Central High Plains... 
Beneath gradually clearing high clouds, diurnal heating of a dry
antecedent airmass will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the
enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft behind the dryline. As a
result, RH in the single digits to lower/middle teens will develop
over the Southwest, while 15-25 percent RH is expected over the
central/southern High Plains. Over northeastern AZ and northwestern
NM, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with
higher gusts) coupled with the dry/deeply-mixed boundary layer will
yield critical fire-weather conditions. Slightly weaker sustained
winds over the central and southern High Plains should support
elevated conditions, though locally critical conditions will be
possible over terrain-favored areas.

...Dry Thunderstorms - Central and Southern High Plains...
In the vicinity of the lee surface low and southward extending
dryline, isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm
development is expected. Deep inverted-v profiles, PWs near 0.5
inches, and quick storm motions should favor dry thunderstorms with
limited rainfall. As these thunderstorms move over very dry fuels,
isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially
in the early stages of development. Gusty/erratic outflow winds
could also acco*pany the stronger thunderstorms. 

...Mid-Atlantic...
Under mostly clear skies, efficient diurnal heating/mixing of a dry
post-frontal airmass could favor 25-30 percent minimum RH across the
Mid-Atlantic states -- where 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds are forecast. This could result in locally elevated
conditions, though recent measurable rainfall across the region
should generally mitigate the fire-weather threat.

..Weinman.. 04/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...