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Mesoscale Discussion 0567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Areas affected...portions of the central Carolinas and far eastern
georgia.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261759Z - 262000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Several clusters of storms ahead of a cold front may pose
a brief risk for damaging wind gusts/marginally severe hail through
this afternoon. A weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon radar and satellite imagery showed several
cluster of thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front across the
southern Appalachians and Carolinas. To the east of the front,
copious diurnal heating is supporting a warm airmass with
temperatures in the mid 80s F. Strong mixing has lowered surface
dewpoints into the upper 50s to near 60 F, but surface moisture
remains sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Relatively
modest mid-level flow flow will likely keep shear profiles weak with
EBWDs of 15-25 kt. While the potential for widespread storm
organization appears low, the buoyancy/shear overlap may support a
few stronger multi-cell clusters capable of damaging outflow winds
and or marginally severe hail through this afternoon. Given the
relatively limited potential for storm organization, a weather watch
will likely not be needed.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33468251 35138124 35808077 36168036 36278007 36507927
            36447863 36317826 36037797 35547797 35067810 34577849
            34107905 33458022 33158084 32848194 32838242 33098268
            33468251