Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261716Z - 261945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may gradually consolidate and
organize across the Interstate 64 vicinity of central into
southeastern Virginia through 4-6 PM EDT, acco*panied by increasing
risk of producing potentially damaging wind gusts, in addition to
small hail.

DISCUSSION...An initial surge of cooler air to the lee of the
central Appalachians is slowing/stalling across the southern
Delmarva Peninsula through the Richmond VA area, then
west-northwestward into the Blue Ridge, to the south of
Charlottesville.  While this front is weak, it does appear that the
associated baroclinic zone will sharpen through the afternoon in
response to differential surface heating.  As this occurs, the last
few runs of the high-resolution Rapid Refresh suggest that it may
beco*e a focus for strengthening and organizing thunderstorm
development.

Thunderstorms have already initiated near/east of the Blue Ridge
near and to the south of the front.  Aided by lift associated with
warm advection along the boundary, and to the northeast of a weak
frontal wave now forming between Charlottesville and Lynchburg,
thunderstorms may cluster and gradually grow upscale.  Height falls
ahead of approaching mid-level troughing will aid east-southeastward
development through the afternoon.

Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels are limiting mixed-layer
CAPE, with peak values at early afternoon still on the order of 500
J/kg.  This might not change much through the afternoon, as surface
dew points decrease a bit to the south of the front with further
boundary-layer mixing.  However, 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the
700-500 mb layer may contribute to sufficient shear and momentum to
support an organizing cluster of storms increasingly capable of
producing strong surface gusts approaching severe limits while
approaching the Richmond area through 20-22Z.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36757863 37347932 38417852 38227763 38437612 37237599
            36847673 36757863