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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce strong gusts and
hail from eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and western Kansas late Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the Southwest on Wednesday morning
is forecast to deamplify as it moves northeastward and impinges upon
a mid/upper-level ridge over the central CONUS. As this occurs, a
surface cyclone will deepen slightly across parts of the
central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will
transport modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the 50s
F) into parts of west TX and the central/southern Plains, to the
east of a dryline and to the south of a weak cold front draped from
eastern CO into parts of NE. 

...Parts of the central/southern High Plains...
Despite the modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating and
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak-to-moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) by late afternoon, along
and east of the dryline. Widely scattered thunderstorm development
is possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH erodes and the ejecting
shortwave trough glances the High Plains region. Effective shear is
expected to remain somewhat marginal (generally 25-30 kt), but
sufficient for a few briefly organized storms. Steep low-level lapse
rates will support a risk of localized severe wind gusts, and some
hail is also possible with any stronger discrete cells. 

Consolidating outflows and an increasing low-level jet may aid in
the development of one or more eastward-moving clusters with time,
which could pose a continued risk of isolated severe gusts into
mid-evening, before the severe threat decreases overnight as MLCINH
nocturnally increases.

..Dean.. 04/26/2022