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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN/SOUTHERN
VA VICINITY TO EASTERN GA...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging winds from locally strong gusts and small to
marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon from the
eastern/southern Virginia vicinity through eastern Georgia.

...Parts of the Southeast/Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Unusually large differences exist for an early D1 period with regard
to boundary-layer moisture quality in the warm sector over the Lower
Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic States. 06Z NAM and 09Z RAP
illustrate differences as much as 15-20 F on surface dew points and
around 4 g/kg on mean mixing ratios this afternoon. The 00Z HRW
cores of the FV3 and ARW support a co*promise scenario between the
two outliers. These latter models appear more realistic given the
presence of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points at present but
modest 0.75 to 1 inch PW values indicated in GOES imagery and
available 12Z soundings. This consensus suggests that a plume of
meager MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg should develop as temperatures warm
through the 80s amid nearly full insolation. While mid-level lapse
rates will remain weak at around 5.5 to 6.0 C/km from 700-500 mb, a
well-mixed inverted-v thermodynamic profile is anticipated.

Mid-level height falls will be favorably timed with peak diurnal
heating to the southeast of a shortwave impulse moving towards the
Upper Mid-Atlantic. This in conjunction with strengthening low-level
convergence along an eastward-moving cold front should aid in
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Lower-level flow
should be weak but 20-30 kt effective bulk shear could favor a few
loosely organized multicell clusters. Given the favorable low-level
thermodynamics, sporadic strong wind gusts producing localized
damage will be possible. This threat will diminish rapidly towards
sunset as convection wanes and the front reaches the coast.

..Grams/Jewell.. 04/26/2022