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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Friday - Southern/Central Plains Vicinity...

An upper trough will extend from the northern Intermountain region
to the southern Rockies Friday morning. The strongest mid/upper flow
associated with trough is expected to be on the back side of the
wave as it slides eastward into the Plains. With time, a closed
upper low is forecast to develop over the northern/central Plains,
though forecast guidance varies on when/where the closed low
evolves. This is resulting in some uncertainty as this will impact
where strong large-scale ascent is focus, as well as where stronger
vertical shear will be located.

Nevertheless, a favorable low-level pattern will emerge across the
central/southern Plains as a lee cyclone deepens and shifts east
across western KS, with another low developing along the NE/SD
border. A surface dryline will extend southward from central KS into
central TX by 00z. Ahead of the dryline, mid 60s F dewpoints will be
in place as far north as central KS, with low 60s F dewpoints
extending into eastern NE. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse
rates will support moderate destabilization. Given uncertainty in
where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, thunderstorm
coverage remains uncertain. But, at least isolated supercells are
expected across eastern/central KS/OK and perhaps north Texas. All
severe hazards will be possible with these storms.

Further north toward northeast KS and eastern NE, a cold front will
surge east/southeast during the late afternoon/evening while a warm
front resides across the lower MO Valley. Additional convection is
expected to develop near the surface low and along the warm front in
strong warm advection from eastern NE into western MO. Storm mode
may quickly beco*e messy in this regime, but potential for all
severe hazards may exist.

...Days 5-8/Sat-Tue...

Forecast uncertainty remains high through the weekend into early
next week. Some severe potential may continues eastward on Saturday
into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. However, medium-range
guidance is in general agreement that the Plains trough/upper low
lift northeast across the Upper Midwest on Saturday into Sunday.
This would keep stronger ascent and more favorable vertical shear
focused north of better boundary-layer moisture. Furthermore, the
surface cold front that shifts east/southeast across the
central/southern Plains Friday night stalls and washes out from the
Mid-MS Valley into the ArkLaTex while low-level flow veers and
beco*es boundary-parallel. While some severe potential may develop,
heavy rain also could beco*e the predominant hazard in a continued
broad warm advection regime.

Beyond Saturday, some severe potential could persist across the
southern Plains Sunday and Monday, though medium range guidance has
large discrepancies. The ECMWF maintains low-amplitude westerly flow
across the Plains during this time with a couple of subtle shortwave
impulses migrating through large-scale flow. The GFS on the other
hand has strong, more co*pact and amplified shortwaves ejecting each
day from the Rockies into the Plains. By the end of the period on
Tuesday, guidance develops a stronger mid/upper trough eastward
toward the Plains, but the timing and placement of this feature
varies by at least 12 hours and a few hundred miles. Altogether, the
overall pattern may support some severe potential, but
predictability in where/when/how much is low.