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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD TO EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging
winds and some hail Tuesday afternoon and early evening from the
central and eastern Virginia vicinity southwestward to east-central
Georgia.

...Synopsis...
Short-wave upper troughing is forecast to move across the eastern
U.S., and also into/across portions of the West today.  In between,
an area of ridging will shift slowly eastward across the Rockies, 
eventually reaching the high Plains.

At the surface, a cold front east of the Appalachians at the start
of the period will move eastward through the day and then offshore
through the evening. In the wake of the front, high pressure will
prevail across the central U.S. and Ohio/Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys.  Meanwhile, a second front will move slowly across the
northwestern quarter of the country.

...Central and eastern Virginia southwestward to east-central
Georgia...
Daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in
modest afternoon destabilization near and ahead of the slowly
advancing cold front.  This will support scattered thunderstorm
development -- initially just to the lee of the Appalachians, but
then expanding in coverage from central Virginia to central Georgia
through early afternoon.

Along with only modest destabilization, shear will also remain
modest -- and rather unidirectional/south-southwesterly through a
deep layer.  These two factors suggest that storms should remain
largely disorganized, and thus maintenance of only MRGL risk for a
few hail events and locally gusty winds seems most reasonable.  A
bit greater risk may evolve across portions of central and eastern
Virginia later in the afternoon, where the strongest flow aloft is
anticipated, but at this time anticipated risk does not quite appear
to warrant an upgrade to slight risk.

Convection -- and any lingering severe risk -- will diminish through
sunset, with storms then moving offshore through the evening.

..Goss/Weinman.. 04/26/2022